Can an LLM allocation beat simple portfolio rules?
Compare the live LLM portfolios with equal weight, inverse volatility, and cross-asset trend under the same Arena season.
Inspect multi-asset ArenaMarket research in public
Test the decision, not just the return.
Follow live LLM decisions, rule-based Arena competitors, and independent Strategy Library backtests. Each surface shows its own timing and execution assumptions.
Representative experiments
How to read these comparisonsThree ways to interrogate a signal
Compare like with like: the same market, season, and execution assumptions before reading a rank.
Does judgment add value on the same instrument?
Put each LLM account beside deterministic competitors for that asset. Pending targets are not realized trades.
Inspect single-asset ArenaHow does a backtest differ from a published season?
Use the Strategy Library for independent daily and 4-hour backtests, then inspect Arena's daily execution records separately.
Browse research evidenceLatest report date
2026-09-24
Published plots
7
Arena competitors
85
Deterministic strategy-asset combinations
67
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Open Plot LibraryFresh chart updates
Compact metadata and context for fast scanning across the latest refreshed indicators.
Macro Factor Exposure Heatmap
Market controls separated from non-market macro and thematic exposures
A cross-sectional heatmap of standardized factor sensitivities for a tech, AI, and crypto-linked equity universe, with the economic story focused on non-market factors.
Open chart
Cross-Asset Performance Around Selected Events
Equity, bond, FX, and commodity responses indexed from a common start date
A Yahoo-based cross-asset event board showing how major market groups behave around selected geopolitical or macro events when rebased to a common level.
Open chart
10-Year Treasury Shock Persistence
Recent nominal-rate shocks versus simulated and realized follow-through
A FRED-based rates board showing the recent 10-year Treasury yield, large daily shocks, an AR-style persistence envelope, and average realized paths after major moves.
Open chart
Federal Reserve Balance-Sheet Mirror Board
Asset and liability stocks alongside recent cumulative shifts
A FRED-based balance-sheet board that shows the asset side, the liability side, and the recent cumulative changes driving the latest moves.
Open chart
FOMC Plumbing Board
Overnight pricing symptoms, reserve mechanics, facility usage, and balance-sheet backdrop
A FRED-based implementation-plumbing board linking money-market spreads, reserve-side mechanics, facility footprints, and long-run balance-sheet scale.
Open chart
Short-Term Liquidity Tightness Dashboard
Funding pressure, reserve drain, transmission, and an integrated tightness score
A short-horizon FRED board tracking whether US money-market rates are pressing above the administered floor and whether reserve-side plumbing is tightening.
Open chartStrategy Snapshot
Open Investment ArenaA preliminary Arena snapshot
Live Season 1 single-asset ranking. Inspect the season, asset, and execution status before comparing competitors.
#1 · Deterministic
Single assetConstant Exposure BTC-USD
BTC-USD
7.80%
-6.96%
BTC-USD +100.0%
Data through 2026-09-29
Decision 2026-09-01T00:00:00Z
#2 · Deterministic
Single assetEMA Cross ADX BTC-USD
BTC-USD
7.80%
-6.96%
BTC-USD +100.0%
Data through 2026-09-29
Decision 2026-09-01T00:00:00Z
#80 · Deterministic
Single assetRegime Switch USO
USO
-12.33%
-12.85%
Cash / unchanged
Data through 2026-09-29
Decision 2026-09-16T00:00:00Z
#79 · Deterministic
Single assetVolatility Target BTC-USD
BTC-USD
-8.52%
-12.54%
BTC-USD +56.3%
Data through 2026-09-29
Decision 2026-09-29T00:00:00Z
Pending settlement
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Why Liquidity Matters More Than Headlines
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2026-04-28
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